Tuesday, 03 April 2012

TODAY'S PRIMARIES AND PENNSYLVANIA

Ken Berwitz

Today there ae three Republican primaries:  Wisconsin, Maryland and Washington D.C.

Rick Santorum is not on the ballot in D.C., so there is no issue about him losing there.  He is far behind in the Maryland polls, and there is little issue about him losing there as well.

In Wisconsin, where Santorum has spent much more time campaigning than Romney (though Romney has far outspent Santorum in advertising), the polls suggest Romney will win by maybe 7% - 10%. That is daunting for Santorum, but within the range where he could pull an upset and win the state.

If Rick Santorum wins Wisconsin I would not blame him for continuing on, because it might suggest that, despite Romney having more than double his number of delegates, Santorum might be on a major upsurge.

If Santorum loses Wisconsin by more than a few points, however, it is time to get out. 

Several pundits are saying he will stay in through Pennsylvania no matter what.  Personally, I think this is ludicrous.  Yes, it is very possible that he can eke out a win in his home state.  But so what?  He's not winning anywhere else, is he?

Barack Obama and his people are seeing the same dynamic and, as of this week, are directing their negative advertising against Mitt Romney personally, not Republicans generally.  They are correctly reading the political writing on the wall, and reacting accordingly. 

Newt Gingrich, albeit grudgingly, seems to be moving toward dropping out and supporting Romney.  ron paul was never in this to begin with.

If Santorum is swept tonight, it is time for him to start working toward unifying the party against Barack Obama.

I agree that Mitt Romney is far from an ideal candidate.  But it will be clear that he is the candidate.  And Mitt Romney in any form will be better than Barack Obama.  Can anyone look me in the eye and tell me that Mr. Obama is an ideal candidate? 

If Santorum loses Wisconsin, then for the sake of his party and the country, let it be his swan song.


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