Friday, 29 October 2010
THE FINAL NBC POLL UPDATE
Keeping in mind that the Democratic emails which have relentlessly been sent out over the past two weeks keep telling us that Democrats are surging in the polls, I will now show you the entire list of polling updates from NBC - which ain't what you'd call a charter member of the vast rightwing conspiracy:
NBC's latest House ratings changes
Here are the latest race ratings changes from your NBC Political Unit. These will be our last changes before Election Day.
HOUSE RATINGS CHANGES
TX-17 TOSS UP TO LEAN R
TN-8 TOSS UP TO LEAN R
NV-3 TOSS UP TO LEAN R
WI-8 TOSS UP TO LEAN R
NJ-3 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
MO-4 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
IA-3 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
NM-1 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
TN-4 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
NY-20 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
MA-10 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
OH-6 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
AZ-7 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
MS-4 PROBABLE D TO TOSS UP
GA-12 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
IA-1 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
ME-1 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
MI-15 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
RI-1 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
MA-4 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
For complete House, Senate, and governors ratings, click for our full map here.
Notice any thread of commonality?
There are 20 updates. And EVERY ONE is moving in favor of the Republican Party.
This is not from some flak at the RNC. This is not from Fox News. This is from NBC.
Don't hold your breath waiting for this to be mentioned in the next Democratic email......
MUCKING UP MURKOWSKI'S WRITE-IN CANDIDACY
I don't know if I like what was just done to Lisa Murkowski, but I have to admire it as a great political strategy.
From the Anchorage Daily News:
In a movement one pro-Sarah Palin website is calling Operation Alaska Chaos, at least 100 people filed paperwork Thursday to register as write-in candidates in the U.S. Senate election, according to the Division of Elections.
A stream of would-be senators filtered through the elections office in Midtown Anchorage late in the day, many saying the effort is meant to protest an order by the Alaska Supreme Court on Wednesday allowing a list of write-in candidates to be shown to voters who ask for assistance.
The court action is expected to aid Sen. Lisa Murkowskis write-in bid and amounts to electioneering by the state, say supporters of Republican nominee Joe Miller. The idea of a mass registration is to create a long list of potential write-in choices and make it harder for voters to find Murkowskis name.
Maybe there are states that offer voters a list of write-in candidates instead of just giving them a space to write in whomever they want. But I don't know of any. And it certainly doesn't happen here in New Jersey.
So the idea that it amounts to electioneering, while admittedly a stretch, is not that far out of whack with reality.
On the other hand, if a list of write-in candidates is to be supplied, then every write-in has to be on it, which renders the "electioneering" element entirely moot - unless Alaska puts Ms. Murkowski's name in a prominent spot on that list instead of, say, in alphabetical order, or some rotation of alphabetical order (i.e. 20% starting with "A", 20% with "F", 20% with "L", etc)
Will the addition of something like 100 write-in candidates hurt Lisa Murkowski --compared to just seeing her name on a page, or as part of an abbreviated short list? Probably yes.
Will it help Joe Miller? Presumably, to the extent that it hurts Murkowski it inherently helps him.
Will it help Democrat Scott McAdams? That's a funny little wild card, isn't it? I wonder how many otherwise-Republican voters will be so turned off by the Miller/Murkowski road show that they switch over to him as a protest.
Can McAdams win? Probably not. But games like this increase whatever chance he has.
BILL PRESS VERSUS WRONG-WAY STEWART (AND COLBERT)
Yes, Jon Stewart and Steve Colbert are taking their left-wing yuk-fest to Washington DC tomorrow. Yes it will be very well attended by fans of the left wing duo.
But if you ask left wing radio talk show host Bill Press, it will be a disaster for the left wing.
Here, in his own words, is the reasoning behind this claim:
Youre going to hate me for it, but I think it's a big mistake.... First of all, what is this thing about? When it comes down to it, it is totally, totally self-indulgent. It's like a big masturbation festival on the Washington Mall on the Saturday before the election.
It's not about workers' rights or civil rights or women's rights or gay rights -- not that we have to be all that serious, but dammit -- and I know a lot of people by the way that are going to this thing. I know a lot of people that are excited about it. I did a little check yesterday about hotel rooms in Washington, D.C. -- you can't find one in Washington, D.C. for this weekend. They're all booked...
The second thing is the timing. Its the Saturday before the election, when dammit! Everything is at stake! I mean, we could lose the whole freakin mess on Tuesday, November the Second. There are a lot of races out there, a lot of people out there, good people like Russ Feingold and Joe Sestak, you name it Barbara Boxer and Michael Bennet down in Colorado, who really need our help, really need people banging on doors and making phone calls, and handing out leaflets and that kind of stuff.
This Saturday, this weekend is the key. This weekend is going to make the difference in dozens of House races and probably at least a dozen look at Nevada, with Harry Reid and Sharron Angle at least a dozen Senate races. This weekend is going to decide, because of the Get Out the Vote activities, who gets over the top. And what I see is that too many young people, too many Democrats, too many liberals, too many progressives, instead of getting out there and working their ass off for what they believe and for people who are going to vote the way they believe, instead they're going to be out on the mall yukkin' it up and then going out and getting drunk.
Y'know, Mr. Press makes a very good point.
Too bad for him that, given his ratings, so few people will be listening. Especially Jon Stewart and Steve Colbert.
As things now stand, Republicans seem positioned for major gains, including a majority of governorships and a majority in the house of representatives. Wouldn't it be ironic if, on the last weekend of the campaign, Stewart and Colbert divert enough left wing resources away from the rallies, phone banks, etc., to win them even more? Maybe even control of the senate too?
For Republicans, this must feel like Christmas is coming early.
But For Democrats? It's like Wrong Way Corrigan came back to life --- and brought a friend.
CHRISTINE O'DONNELL: STAY OUT OF CHHATTARPUR!!!
Wondering what that title is all about?
This excerpt from an article in the Times of India will explain it:
GUMLA: An old woman was killed by unidentified persons at Chhattarpur village under the Raidih police station, 30 km from the district headquarters, on Wednesday night.
The victim, identified as Mangla Oraon (70), was found dead at the courtyard of her house, police said, adding the incident took place when her family members had gone out to celebrate Karma festival and the woman was alone in her house.
Though villagers are keeping mum, police suspect she was killed by villagers for practising witchcraft.
I'm sorry for Ms. Oraon. Her death is not funny at all.
But if I were Ms. O'Donnell, and someone invited me to Chhatarpur village for the Karma festival, I would think twice before going.
A TALE OF TWO REALITIES
Here is an excerpt from one of the seemingly endless number of emails - more than one a day - sent by Democrats and Democratic groups over the past two weeks. It comes to us from al franken:
Youve seen the polls were neck and neck in race after race. Moving the numbers just a little bit could mean the difference between victory and defeat trust me, Ive been there.
For the moment we'll forget about how franken won that senate seat (which should please him greatly) and concentrate on the claim that Democrats are surging in the polls, which is the recurring theme of these emails.
Here is a bit of different news, excerpted from Paul Steinhauser's blog at CNN:
The Rothenberg Political Report Friday forecast a net gain of 55 to 65 seats for the Republicans, with gains at or above 70 seats possible. That's up from Rothenberg's previous forecast of a GOP gain of 45 to 55 seats. The Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to win back control of the chamber from the Democrats, who have held the House and the Senate for the last four years.
"At this point, there are no signs of a Democratic 'surge,' and some Democrats think that the political environment is deteriorating for the party. Across the country, Republicans are ending their campaigns with calls to 'check' President Obama. Given the mood of the electorate, this is likely to be an effective closing argument," says the Rothenberg Report.
Another top non-partisan political handicapper, the Cook Political Report, Wednesday forecast a net gain of 48 to 60 seats for the Republicans, with higher gains possible.
The largest midterm House loss for the president's party over the past half century came in 1994, when the GOP won back 52 seats to retake the House, and the Senate as well.
Tell me: who do you find more credible? al "hey, here are some more votes we didn't know about that should count too" franken, or Mr. Steinhauser, Mr. Rothenberg and Mr. Cook?
THE DEPTHS OF GAY HATRED
This thoroughly disgusting story, about a thoroughly disgusting "person", comes to us via the following excerpt from an Associated Press article:
The head of an anti-bullying group has applauded the decision of an Arkansas school board member to resign after posting on Facebook that he thinks gay youths should kill themselves.
LITTLE ROCK, Ark.
Clint McCance, a member of the Midland school board in Pleasant Plains, about 70 miles northeast of Little Rock, announced his resignation Thursday night on CNN's "Anderson Cooper 360." He said he was quitting "to help my school, my community," though he added that he might run again for the board at some point.
"The only thing I can do is extend my apologies for my poor speech," he said. "I don't wish death on anyone."
McCance had scoffed in a Facebook posting at a campaign asking supporters to wear purple Oct. 20 to show solidarity after several gay and lesbian youths killed themselves, reportedly because of bullying.
"Seriously they want me to wear purple because five queers killed themselves," McCance wrote. "The only way im wearin it for them is if they all commit suicide. I cant believe the people of this world have gotten this stupid. We are honoring the fact that they sinned and killed thereselves because of their sin."
Apologizing for his "poor speech" and assuring us that "I don't wish death on anyone"? What a guy.
Musta been someone else putting up that facebook entry.
The saddest part is that clint mccance is far, far from the only one who feels this way.
My advice to the mccances of the world is that if they do not like the idea of gay relationships, DON'T HAVE THEM. And if they don't like the idea of other people enegaging in gay relationships, MIND YOUR OWN BUSINESS. IT IS NOT YOUR LIFE.
That plain enough?
"IMMIGRANTS RIGHTS" AND THE LAW
Immigrants have full rights in this country.
Illegal immigrants do not, because, as the description clearly shows, they are not here legally and therefore do not have the rights accorded legal immigrants.
But you would never know it from the article by Liz Goodwin at yahoo.com, which I am excerpting below:
Report: 25 states considering Arizona-style immigration laws
By Liz Goodwin Thu Oct 28, 11:43 am ET
An immigrant-rights group has released a report (PDF) predicting that 25 states may try next year to pass anti-illegal-immigration laws similar to Arizona's controversial legislation.
The number of states considering legislation modeled after SB1070, the bill that Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer signed into law this spring, is apparently growing: Earlier, pro-enforcement groups said 22 states were considering the bill, the Washington Independent's Elise Foley notes.
The new efforts are going forward even after a federal judge ruled key parts of the Arizona law unconstitutional and enjoined its enforcement in Arizona in July. That decision is now under appeal before the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court.
[Rewind: Mexican government slams Arizona immigration law]
Georgia, Mississippi, Oklahoma and South Carolina are most likely to pass a similar law next year, the new report says. Tennessee, Utah, Florida, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Texas, Arkansas, Indiana, Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, Missouri, Idaho and Kansas made the report's "maybe" list. In Maryland, Nevada, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio and Rhode Island, the legislation is seen as less likely to pass.
The report notes that from 2006 to 2008, municipalities passed a host of local laws and statutes cracking down on employers hiring illegal immigrants.
This next wave of legislation, the report says, will be aimed at getting local law enforcement to check immigration status in routine police stops, as SB1070 mandates.
Lawmakers may be influenced by how the Ninth Circuit rules on SB1070, and how the Supreme Court rules on the state's 2007 employer-sanction law passed. Finances may also influence local politicians' decisions, as more immigration-related arrests and court battles end up costing cities and counties that adopt such rules.
If Ms. Goodwin had referenced an advocacy group for illegal immigrants she'd have been accurate. But by calling it an immigrant-rights group, she equates legal immigrants with illegals as if there is no distinction at all.
Ms. Goodwin, your bias is showing.
By the way, I intentionally left in that link to the Mexican government's "slamming" of Arizona-style laws (which, in fact, are federal government-style laws, since Arizona did little other than replicate the federal immigration laws our current administration is sworn to uphold, but clearly is subverting.) It is important to know what how the single most prolific source of illegal aliens views this situation.
My personal opinion is that maybe Mexico should spend a little less time telling us how to run the United States, and a little more time doing something about the murderous drug cartels that currently control parts of northern Mexico, and are spilling over into the United States because of our lack of border security.
Mexico's inability to secure its own sovereignty versus drug gangs and their paid assassins is a national embarrassment. Pay more attention to that, President Caldern. It's about time.