Sunday, 22 October 2006

My Gut

Ken Berwitz

A couple of weeks ago I commented that, while the political polls were showing a likely Democratic massacre of Republicans on election day, my gut was telling me - very loudly and very strongly - that this wasn't going to happen.  It was telling me that while Democrats might gain in one or both houses of congress they weren't getting a majority in either one of them.

An update: My gut just spoke to me again last night (maybe it was the Spanish food we ate at Sevilla in the West Village, but I'm pretty sure it was my gut).  And it said the same thing, even more loudly and more strongly.

Interestingly enough, some of the polling data are starting to side with my gut too.  Senate-wise, Talent looks stronger, maybe even ahead, in Missouri.  Ditto for Corker in Tennessee.  Burns has gone from sure loser to even in Montana.  Kean Jr. (weasel that he is) is still at least competitive in NJ.  Chafee is within striking distance in Rhode Island.  While Santorum remains significantly behind in Pennsylvania he has a history of finishing strong, so I'm not sure about that one either.  And Lieberman is apparently going to beat Lamont in Connecticut (I expect him to align Democratic anyway, but you never know).  Obviously it would not take much for Republicans to retain control here.

Similarly, a bunch of house races that looked strong or at least competitive for Democrats are not as strong or competitive now.

My gut is very formidable - size-wise AND politically.  It won't be long to see whether it is on the money this year.

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